The essence of an era dominated by strong leaders is a collective voluntary surrender of control.

This article is authorized reprint from Deep潮 TechFlow with the original author's rights reserved.

On the early morning of November 7, Tesla shareholders cast an unprecedented vote, with over 75% of votes approving Elon Musk’s compensation plan, which could total up to one trillion US dollars.

Following the announcement of the vote results, a wave of cheers erupted on the scene, with shareholders loudly calling Musk’s name.

If fully realized, this compensation package would make Musk the world’s first "trillionaire" in terms of net worth.

Aiming for a Market Cap of $8.5 Trillion

How can Musk realize this trillion-dollar payout?

According to official documents, Musk’s incentive plan is divided into 12 stages, each with specific market value and operational targets.

The market cap goals start at $2 trillion and aim to reach $8.5 trillion. Upon completing each stage, Musk will receive approximately 35.31 million shares. After all stages, his ownership stake could increase from current roughly 15% to 25%.

However, the market cap requirement is not just a short-term spike to the target level—it must be maintained for at least 6 months to unlock the corresponding rewards.

In addition to market cap, each stage has specific business milestones to achieve.

For instance, the first stage requires completing one of 12 operational milestones, while the third stage requires any three of the 12 milestones.

The 12 operational milestones are:

• Adjusted EBITDA: $50 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $80 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $130 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $210 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $300 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion
• Adjusted EBITDA: $400 billion
• Cumulative vehicle deliveries: 20 million
• Full Self-Driving (FSD) users: 10 million
• Robotaxi fleet: 1 million vehicles
• Humanoid robots delivered: 1 million units

These targets must be achieved within ten years, with some requiring continuous maintenance to become effective.

For example, if Tesla achieves an adjusted EBITDA of $130 billion in a year and its market cap reaches $3 trillion, rewards from stages one to three can be unlocked, totaling approximately $105 million in stock grants. This is because $130 billion EBITDA indicates the company has met three operational milestones (EBITDA of $50B, $80B, and $130B).

Is It Realistic?

As of September 2025, within the first nine months, Tesla posted a net profit of $2.9 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA of $10.8 billion. It’s projected that in 2025, the adjusted EBITDA will reach $14.4 billion.

Based on this trajectory, Tesla would need to grow at a compounded annual rate of 51% to hit a $400 billion valuation in 2033 and sustain it for two years afterward.

This would require leapfrogging sales from $93 billion to $2.5 trillion—an almost impossible feat purely from a cash flow perspective.

But Tesla’s valuation has never been solely based on cash flow models; it thrives on narrative leverage—powerful storytelling that fuels market valuation.

Positive narratives drive stock prices up, which then reinforce the narrative's correctness.

Investors' high valuation expectations and confidence are largely built on the "optionality" of Tesla’s future growth—any of its sideline businesses (AI, robotics, energy) could become new growth engines.

Thus, the real significance of this incentive plan may not be the monetary value but how it aligns Tesla’s strategic vision over the next decade:

Tesla must achieve breakthroughs in AI, energy, autonomous driving, and manufacturing to fulfill this "vision economy" experiment.

From this perspective, Tesla’s market cap target might actually be the easiest part to accomplish in the plan.

The Era of Strongmen

In this voting process, Musk’s gains go far beyond financial incentives.

If the plan is fully executed, his ownership stake would increase from 15% to about 25%, further consolidating governance power.

The market’s trust in Musk is almost religious.

Over 75% of shareholders supported this plan, willing to dilute their own equity and weaken corporate checks and balances, so long as Musk continues leading Tesla’s destiny.

This transforms Tesla from a traditional public company into a "narrative platform" centered around its founder, with valuation, strategy, branding, and technological pace all tied to his will.

Similar phenomena are happening across various industries, signaling the arrival of the "strongman" era.

In AI, companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are enhancing core founder control through voting mechanisms and shareholding structures;

In the crypto world, many protocols revolve around "founder + narrative token ownership" models.

Founders provide the story and direction, capital provides resources and time, and governance is consciously delegated in exchange for continued narrative expansion.

The essence of this "strongman era" is a collective voluntary surrender of control.

Investors, employees, regulators, and society as a whole, in the name of "growth" and "innovation," cede more power to just a few individuals.

Lessons for Web3

Tesla’s stock incentive plan is also a form of tokenomics experiment.

In the crypto space, many projects release large portions of tokens to teams and founders immediately after token generation events (TGE).

This narrative-first, delayed-execution approach creates structural flaws—storytelling that precedes actual product or revenue creation. Projects often cash out early on hype, while real development and profitability lag behind.

This “cash-out-before-build” model may attract speculative capital short-term, but hampers long-term innovation and trust.

Compared with Tesla’s structured, long-term incentive model, crypto projects could benefit by adopting similar mechanisms—releasing tokens only after achieving certain market cap, revenue, user base, or product milestones, with outcomes decided by stakeholders.

This would incentivize founders and teams to sustain growth in market value, cash flow, and product adoption.

If Web3 could embed such structures, aligning token release with tangible results, it might filter projects truly capable of creating value and sustainable cash flow.

This could help Web3 move from just "storytelling" to real "product delivery."

But then，又会有多少人愿意在Web3真正去创业呢？

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